Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 233.299331 283.295196 345.013803 428.098933 539.059830 6.851860e+02 8.975147e+02
2025-08-03 175.642966 233.059682 313.069757 437.016670 632.720322 9.464678e+02 1.527566e+03
2025-08-10 141.890556 199.958207 288.010656 439.267981 711.580759 1.227186e+03 2.425856e+03
2025-08-17 117.897410 173.499543 263.205686 429.953342 763.463992 1.491501e+03 3.586943e+03
2025-08-24 100.601973 153.122606 242.112141 418.515949 804.299314 1.761150e+03 5.157311e+03
2025-08-31 87.513622 136.891342 223.989241 406.252443 837.120314 2.038512e+03 7.298311e+03
2025-09-07 83.193435 134.647957 230.143820 444.541257 1007.463430 2.862901e+03 1.423005e+04
2025-09-14 75.974983 125.919250 221.995435 448.955429 1093.761299 3.523156e+03 2.375254e+04
2025-09-21 70.978198 120.461335 219.159056 464.884664 1224.311921 4.552857e+03 4.595199e+04
2025-09-28 65.178121 112.595711 209.791331 461.755528 1294.255620 5.437529e+03 8.199572e+04
2025-10-05 63.571988 112.709135 217.581246 506.569775 1566.666276 8.096578e+03 2.886409e+05
2025-10-12 61.417946 111.366599 221.811818 543.320753 1844.020803 1.180659e+04 1.542268e+06
2025-10-19 58.678045 108.635137 222.815607 573.101473 2135.267012 1.731288e+04 3.403215e+07
2025-10-26 55.515644 104.586739 219.924117 590.148165 2391.919218 2.452087e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 52.131673 99.613016 213.802465 594.450015 2591.860126 3.320090e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 48.416336 93.455989 203.575563 580.912084 2675.934459 4.109595e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 44.993228 87.603369 193.268690 564.101771 2728.677635 4.980308e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 41.898491 82.197389 183.381463 546.091649 2761.204161 5.954362e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 41.551673 83.201080 191.376344 602.573663 3461.677027 1.290482e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 39.648888 80.256033 187.649131 609.124608 3763.647546 2.028108e+05 NaN
2025-12-14 38.364917 78.684969 187.700401 632.827242 4294.401494 4.039336e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.453063 75.362480 181.990951 628.163186 4526.285087 6.489774e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.334556 76.541777 190.305964 695.325634 5830.962790 3.521653e+06 NaN